- BTC risks falling below $8,000 in the short-term, having created a doji candle last week.
- Below $8,000, the focus would shift to the 30-day moving average, currently at $7,643, which has a penchant for reversing price pullbacks.
- The outlook as per the daily chart would turn bearish if the price sees a UTC close below the 30-day MA. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the price is trading above May’s low of $5,263.
- The case for a short-term correction would weaken if bitcoin bounces from the bullish 5-week moving average, currently at $8,220, and ends up clearing today’s high of $8,746.
Bitcoin (BTC) could revisit sub-$8,000 levels in the short-term, as a longer-duration chart is flashing signs of bullish exhaustion for the first time this year.
The world’s top cryptocurrency by market capitalization witnessed solid two-way business last week. Prices rose to fresh 12-month highs near $9,100 only to fall back all the way to $8,000 before registering a flat close at $8,735, according to Bitstamp data.
The indecisive price action came after a solid rally. For instance, BTC rose by $3,800 in the preceding four weeks and is currently up more than 125 percent on a year-to-date basis. Further, BTC closed May with 62 percent gains – the biggest monthly gain since August 2017.
So, the ambiguous trading activity witnessed last week could be considered a sign of buyer exhaustion. That argument would be further strengthened if prices settle below $8,000 this Sunday.
Therefore, the psychological support of $8,000 is the level to defend for the bulls. As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $8,465 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. Prices hit a high and low of $8,746 and $8,336, respectively, earlier today.
Bitcoin created a classic doji candle last week, signaling indecision in the market place.
The candlestick, however, appeared following a four-week winning streak and with prices at one-year highs. So, it seems safe to say that indecision or exhaustion is predominantly among buyers.
It’s worth noting that BTC created a similar looking doji candle in the seven days to April 14. The pattern, however, failed to yield a correction and prices hit a fresh multi-month high above $5,600 by month end, possibly because the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) was biased bullish at the time.
The latest doji candle is accompanied by overbought readings above 70 on the RSI. As a result, a correction to levels below $8,000 looks likely.
That said, the 5- and 10-week moving averages (MA), currently at $8,220 and $6,762, respectively, continue to trend north, indicating a bullish setup, and could put the brakes on any price drop.
The psychological resistance of $9,000 could come into play if bitcoin bounces from the 5-week MA at $8,220 and ends up clearing today’s high of $8,746.
On the daily chart, the RSI has produced lower highs, contradicting the higher highs on the price.
That bearish divergence, coupled with the “bearish outside day” candle created on May 30, indicates the cryptocurrency is overdue for a pullback, possibly to the historically strong support of the 30-day MA, currently at $7,648.
That average has consistently reversed pullbacks throughout the rally from lows near $3,700 seen on Feb. 8.
As a result, a strong bounce from that MA would revive the short-term bullish setup, while a UTC close below that level could embolden sellers, leading to a deeper correction.
BTC closed last month with 62 percent gains, marking a strong follow-through to the falling channel breakout or long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change confirmed by April’s candle.
The breakout looks stronger now as the 5-month MA has crossed above the 10-month MA – the first bullish crossover of those lines since September 2015.
The 5- and 10-month MAs are currently located at $6,032 and $5,414, respectively, and would likely come into play should prices find acceptance below the 30-day MA at $7,648.
The long-term bullish outlook would be invalidated only if the price drops below May’s low of $5,263.
Bitcoin decoupled from traditional markets in May, rising more than $3,000.
The cryptocurrency, currently at $8,300 on Bitstamp, is set to end higher for the fourth straight month with 60 percent gains. That is the longest monthly winning streak and the biggest monthly gain since August 2017.
Notably, the leading cryptocurrency by market value has put on a good show despite the losses on Wall Street. The S&P 500 index – a benchmark for global equity markets – is on track to end May with a 6 percent loss.
Other riskier assets – the ones which are sensitive to economic growth prospects – are also flashing monthly losses, as seen below.
Both copper and brent oil, the barometers of global economic activity, have dropped 9 percent and 11 percent, respectively this month. The Chinese Yuan has also shed 2 percent.
The flight to safety has boded well for traditional safe haven assets. For instance, gold is reporting a 1 percent monthly gain and the US 10-year treasury yield is down 13 percent or 43 basis points (bond prices and yields move in opposite directions).
The gains in the traditional safe havens, however, appear lackluster when compared to bitcoin’s 60 percent rise. That said, it is still too early to conclude that BTC is the new safe haven.
This is due to the fact that up until now, BTC has moved mostly in line with the risk assets, as seen in the above chart. For instance, BTC is up 127 percent on a year-to-date basis. The S&P 500 and other major risk assets are also reporting year-to-date gains.
Also, BTC largely mimicked the price action in the equity markets in 2018.
BTC’s reputation as digital gold will be solidified if it continues to post solid gains during bouts of risk aversion, if any, in the coming months.
- Bitcoin bounced up from $8,420 on Wednesday, forming a bullish higher low. The 4-hour chart now shows a bull flag breakout. As a result, a rally to $9,000 looks possible.
- A pennant breakout confirmed on Sunday has already created room for a rally to $10,000. On the way higher, BTC may face selling pressure near the key Fibonacci retracement level of $9,442.
- The short-term bullish case would weaken if BTC finds acceptance below the former resistance-turned-support at $8,390. A bearish volume divergence on the daily chart does indicate scope for a price pullback.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains on the hunt for $9,000, having established a bullish pattern at key price support in the last 24 hours.
The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently trading at $8,730 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.8 percent gain on the day. Prices hit a high of $8,785 earlier today.
Trading kicked off on a pessimistic note on Wednesday, with prices falling below the former resistance-turned-support of $8,500 (July 2018 high) in the Asian trading hours.
However, the drop to levels close to the May 16 high of $8,390 – also a former hurdle-turned-support – was short-lived and prices bounced back to $8,663 by UTC close, according to Bitstamp data.
Essentially, BTC established a bullish higher-low pattern in the key support zone yesterday, strengthening the bullish case put put forward by Sunday’s pennant breakout.
The path of least resistance, therefore, is to the higher side. Even so, buyers need to observe caution, as the cryptocurrency has already rallied more than 60 percent this month. Sudden price pullbacks are usually seen after such stellar rallies.
BTC witnessed a bull flag breakout – a continuation pattern known to accelerate the preceding bullish move – on the 4-hour chart earlier today, creating room for a rally to $9,940 (target as per the measured move method).
The pennant breakout confirmed on Sunday has already opened the doors to $10,000.
On the way higher, BTC may face resistance at $9,442 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the December 2017 high to December 2018 low.
It is worth noting that BTC created a doji candle with a long upper shadow – a sign of buyer exhaustion – in the four hours to 08:00 UTC, marking a weak follow-through to the bull flag breakout.
Should the doji candle’s high of $8,785 prove a tough nut to crack over the next few hours, a price pullback could be seen.
The case for a rise to $9,000, however, would weaken only if the newly established higher low at $8,420 is breached.
The daily trading volume bars continue to produce lower highs, contradicting the higher highs on price.
That bearish volume divergence takes the shine off the pennant breakout confirmed Sunday and indicates that the rally to $9,000 or above could be short-lived or may be preceded by a correction to $8,000.
Trading volumes need to pick up for a sustained move above $9,000.
A security researcher from Harry Denley, has posted a detailed – and damning – analysis of paper wallet site .,
The core of the analysis hinges on WalletGenerator’s original open-source code, available here. Until August 17, 2018 the online code matched the open-source code and the entire project generated wallets using a client-side technique that took in real random entropy and produced a unique wallet. But sometime after that date the two sets of code stopped matching.
“Approaching from a different angle, we then used the “Bulk Wallet” generator to generate 1,000 keys. In the non-malicious, GitHub version, we are given 1,000 unique keys, as expected.
However, usingat various times between May 18, 2019 — May 23, 2019, we would only get 120 unique keys per session. Refreshing our browser, switching VPN locations, or having a different party perform the same test would result in a different set of 120 keys being generated.”
While the odd behavior was not found as of last Friday (May 24), it could be return at any time.
“We’re still considering this highly suspect and still recommending users who generated public / private keypairs after August 17, 2018, to move their funds,” the researcher says. “We do not recommend usingmoving forward, even if the code at this very moment is not vulnerable.”
You can read the entire report here, but Denley recommends moving funds off of your WalletGenerator-based paper wallets. As there is no clear way to contact the “two random guy [sic] having fun with a side project” who apparently run the site, we can safely recommend you avoid the site altogether.
Bitcoin’s price has once again set a new high for 2019 after breaking out from a bullish pattern on the daily chart, reaching as high as $8,905 before retracing slightly.
At 19:00 UTC on May 26, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization broke from an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart, courtesy of being held beneath $8,250 for an extended period of time.
The move to fresh 2019 highs has come at a time when prices were beginning to creep to the downside, touching as low as $6,600 on May 17 before a large amount of buying pressure pushed prices back above $7,300 within the same day.
Since then prices have once again jumped by 22 percent, first rising above $8,500 on Sunday night in bullish fashion, then reaching over $8,700 within half an hour. It’s currently changing hands at $8,890 per CoinDesk’s price data.
Notably, the price rally was also accompanied by a large uptick in the 24-hour trading volume, an increase of $10.3 billion was added overall, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
However, its “Real 10” volume – a metric that takes into account trading volume from exchanges reporting honest volume figures as identified in a report by Bitwise Asset Management – currently stands at $3.1 billion, according to Messari.io.
Meanwhile, other highly ranked cryptocurrencies like EOS, Ether (ETH), XRP, and litecoin (LTC) have gained between 5.3 to 5.8 percent each on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinMarketCap.
What’s more, the total market capitalization has risen to a high of $268.1 billion its highest point since August 3, 2018 while the market capitalization for altcoins is up $6 billion, a sign of continued funding and investment for cryptocurrencies overall.
Eyes are now firmly set on bitcoin’s new target along $9,650 resistance, last seen 13 months ago on April 30, 2018, signaling a very strong upward move beyond the $10,000 psychological price tag.